Formula 1 Picks & Predictions

F1 2026 predictions - championship picks and season betting analysis

The 2026 Formula 1 season has developed into a battle between Mercedes and Ferrari, with Kimi Antonelli looking to become the youngest-ever F1 champion. Mercedes has started the year strongly, but Ferrari has made some key updates to level the playing field in recent weeks.

While Antonelli is the favourite to win the Drivers’ Champions, there are a lot of race days left, and Hamilton and Russell are not far behind. As the season develops, you can make your picks on race winners, podium finishers and outright winners here at Stake Sportsbook. Follow our predictions and analysis on the latest championship odds and to make the best informed bets at Stake for the second half of the season.

Our pick for 2026 Austrian Grand Prix

After finally delivering his first win of the season in the Barcelona-Catalunya GP, Lewis Hamilton is the most in-form driver right now. However, our Austrian GP race prediction is for Kimi Antonelli to return to winning form. The Drivers’ Championship leader was forced to retire with just 4 laps remaining at the Barcelona-Catalunya GP, but has so far won 5 out of 9 races this season. The characteristics of the Red Bull Ring circuit, including its layout and elevation, favour the power of the Mercedes engine, and Antonelli has had an edge over his teammate, George Russell.

Who will win the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship: our pick

Our pick to win the 2026 Drivers’ Championship is Kimi Antonelli. The Mercedes driver has built an impressive lead in the standings so far, winning 5 out of 7 races. Antonelli is the current major according to the latest F1 odds.

If you’re looking for value, you might consider one of the other drivers. In recent weeks, Kimi Antonelli’s lead has shortened. He failed to secure a podium finish for the first time all season at the Barcelona-Catalunya GP. Could either Lewis Hamilton or George Russell challenge for the title?

Hamilton has finished 2nd or better in his last 3 races, and could potentially push Antonelli close if his form continues. The Ferrari arguably has an advantage on low-downforce circuits, and despite being a 7-time world champion, Hamilton is 3rd-favourite in the betting odds.

Meanwhile, George Russell has significantly more experience than his Mercedes teammate. He started the season strongly but has suffered from bad luck and team errors. If he can race as he did in Australia, he could still take the championship win.

Constructors' Championship prediction: Mercedes versus Ferrari

Mercedes built an early lead in the race for the Constructors’ title, with strong performances from Kimi Antonelli. George Russell has also raced well, winning a lot of points for the team, although he’s also had some bad luck with his car and team strategy.

While Mercedes has an impressive lead in the Constructors’ standings, it’s not over yet. After some major car updates and excellent performances from Hamilton and Leclerc, Ferrari could be back in the race.

Hamilton has recently reignited his title-winning form, and if he continues to finish on the podium, Ferrari has a chance to upset Mercedes. This would most likely rely on Mercedes having a disastrous few weeks, which is hard to imagine given their consistency so far this season.

Circuit types and which teams to back at each

Throughout the F1 season, teams travel to different race locations all over the world. Each location features a unique track, offering its own special challenges and considerations to the teams and their drivers. Different F1 circuits favour different car setups and styles of racing, which is why the car with the most power isn’t necessarily always going to win. Before making your F1 predictions, it’s important to understand the specific track types and how they play into the strengths and weaknesses of each team.

Power circuits

Power circuits, such as Monza, Red Bull Ring and Spa, feature long straights and short, slow corners. When racing on these circuits, the car’s performance is tied to its power, acceleration and top speed. This season, Mercedes has a clear power advantage over the other teams, so its drivers tend to fare better on these tracks. While Baku City and the Las Vegas Strip are both street circuits, they also feature extremely long straights, which give teams with a lot of power the edge.

High-downforce tracks

High-downforce tracks have shorter straights and a higher emphasis on corners. Downforce is created by the car’s shape and wings, with aerodynamic force pushing the car into the ground, increasing grip. Cars with better aerodynamics, such as the Ferrari this season, can take corners at higher speeds. Examples of high-downforce tracks include street circuits such as the Circuit de Monaco and Marina Bay in Singapore. In addition, there’s Hungaroring in Hungary and the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain.

Season value bets and long-range F1 markets worth watching

Fastest lap and podium finish trends in 2026

So far this season, Antonelli has 4 of the fastest lap times. In the other 3 races, the fastest lap was set by Verstappen, Norris and Hamilton. Antonelli has the fastest car, but with the right strategy and conditions, other drivers can set faster times.

When betting on the fastest lap time, it’s important to consider the track characteristics. On circuits like Monaco, where overtaking is more difficult, the fastest lap time will usually go to the front-runner.

You should also think about the tyre strategy that each team uses during the race. Drivers will typically post faster lap times on fresh, soft-compound tyres. If a team typically saves a set of soft tyres for the final laps of the race, they have a good chance of setting the fastest lap.

If you’re betting live on the fastest lap time, you can also consider possible safety car restarts and red flags, as well as the weather conditions during the race.

Mercedes has been the dominant team so far this season, with Kimi Antonelli finishing on the podium in all but one race so far. Hamilton started off slow, but now has 4 podium finishes, putting him ahead of George Russell, who has faced a series of technical issues. Meanwhile, Leclerc is tied on 2 podium finishes with Norris and Piastri, while Verstappen and Gasly have 1 each.

If you’re betting on which driver will finish on the podium, consider the track characteristics and driver history on that circuit. You should also look at their recent form and what kind of strategy their team uses during the race.

Constructor head-to-head markets for the second half of the season

F1 outright betting markets let you predict end-of-season outcomes such as the winners of the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships.

If you’re looking for value in the odds, the Constructors’ Championship head-to-head markets are a great option. For example, you can bet on whether or not the Haas F1 team will finish ahead of Williams. There’s more value here because they’re close in the standings right now, and it could still go either way. Oliver Bearman has picked up quite a lot of points for Haas, so we’re backing them to finish ahead of Williams.

Where to bet on F1 in 2026

You can bet on the F1 right here at Stake Sportsbook, with all the latest odds for upcoming Grand Prix races and F1 outright betting available too. F1 live betting is also available, and you can benefit from all of our sports betting promotions. Learn more about sports betting and how to place F1 bets on Stake in our F1 betting guide.

Make sure you follow our responsible betting guidelines while making your picks and predictions to stay Stake Smart.